I am happy to report that this indeed is what happened. The skipper did abandon SMALL FRY, she was recovered & continues to achieve some creditable sea miles cruising the WA including a rounding of Cape Leeuwin on the SW tip of Australian continent.
I posted these findings on the Paradox Builders group site & it's brought up some further discussion & input from a friend of SMALL FRY who provided some of the above information. He also suggested, based on discussions with the skipper, that the rudder may have given away before the capsize & dismasting. Some of the discussion follows:-
> Geoff Davis recently sent me a link to this article. (See my previous post about Paradox Design) It explains why the Paradox is a very good sea boat. The Paradox is not overly beamy, is heavy displacement for its size, has a favourable prismatic coefficient which means that it does not hobby horse excessively, the ballast ratio is not excessive and the ballast is not too low down, the rig is relatively heavy which slows down the roll motion. The A/B ratio which is the ratio of boat above and below the water is also good. Not covered in this article is the fact that the mast will float when submersed, adding more to the ultimate stability. I have previously built a free standing mast and have used the same calculations to check the design of the Paradox mast. I think it is strong. If anyone is concerned about the strength of the mast it might be worth considering a mast tabernacle which will help to support the mast. I considered this but decided to stick with the plan, mostly because it is so neat. When I questioned Geoff about the capsize he thought the rudder had given way first. I think it is worth having a good look at how you build your rudder. Make sure it is strong - there is a lot of force going through it.
> ... the rudder. It also looks to me the most vulnerable part of the boat.... the weakest link. But, to be fair, Matt designed the boat as a coastal cruiser which only ventures out onto the wide open ocean during during reasonable weather.( Posted by: "james hall" flexwing462)
> What are the weak areas of the Paradox rudder? . (Posted by: wyliewesty)
> The rudder is cantilevered from the rudder stock and unsupported for most of the underwater part. Which is not a problem when used as designed. Many other boats have unsupported rudders and they aren't having a problem. But the Paradox rudder carries more load than most other types and when conditions become extreme that load increases, so it and its fixings need to be stronger than most others.( Posted by: "james hall" flexwing462)
> I'm looking forward to reading Geoff's account so that we can understand what went wrong, and why, and the info will help us when evaluating what are suitable weather conditions. ( Jim c/-Jims Times blog)
I recall that Sven Yrvind did a major redesign for his ocean crossing design based on Paradox.
This is Sven Yrvind's "modified Paradox" rudder assembly under construction minus it's mass blade shown below. Very complex, he later wrote that "YRVIND.COM" "became too heavy".
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